A curated list of the top ten potential disruptions in Technology with a focus on education and the Public Sector.

Last Updated - 07/12/2023

1. Artificial Intelligence - Large Language Models

Relevance: We are only begining to understand the impacts of LLMs in our work lives. 12 months after the launch of ChatGTP governments are begining to provide some solid guidelines. The accessibility of these tools to everyone thanks to OpenAIs business model and the lauch of the Microsoft Co-Pilots means all organisations will need a plan.

Innovation: LLMs have been around for a long time the innovation here is unbiquitous global access. Never before has an experiement with a new technology been done at this pace on this kind of scale.

Feasibility: The excitement and hype around transformational possibilites needs to be tempered here. Text generated by an LLM is becoming easy to spot. It's definitly got use cases where copy needs to be created quickly or in brainstorming. But issues with halucinations and credability of the information provided means there's a need to tight human oversight. Future models GPT 5 and Googles upcoming models are likely going to experience similar problems differentiating and propogating "truth". But that's getting into a philospohical discussions 

Impact: Creative industries are feeling the impact now. Expect more industrial action around this topic. Proliferation of content is already a problem with largely human sourced effort. Now automatically generated content will increase the noise in our communications channels. People a developing the ability to detect content created by LLMs expect authenticity to become a differentiator. As we wade deeper into this age of digital transformation, the authenticity of content will become an increasingly valuable commodity. In a sea of noise, genuine, human-touched content might emerge as a beacon for many. As we wade deeper into this age of digital transformation, the authenticity of content will become an increasingly valuable commodity. In a sea of noise, genuine, human-touched content might emerge as a beacon for many. 

Buzz/Wow Factor: There's little that is getting more attention that AI in the market place for ideas at the moment. However Being able to generate lots of ideas is one thing. But being able to execute is another thing entierly. LLMs are unlikley to become autonomous agents. The time for excitement will emerge when human and AI collaborations gain profile and popularity.

2. Crypto and Block Chain

Relevance: The promise of blockchain technologies currently lies in their potential, largely overshadowing their real-world applications. Their value proposition is sometimes clouded by short-term, hype-driven schemes that attract questionable stakeholders.

Innovation: Blockchain, with its distributed ledger system, represents a groundbreaking innovation. The prospect of creating an incorruptible, verifiable, and publicly accessible ledger is revolutionary and carries the potential to upend centralized record-keeping mechanisms.

Feasibility: The application spectrum for blockchain is vast. Any institution holding records—from property ownership to student certification—can potentially be replaced or augmented by a blockchain solution. However, its credibility faces hurdles, primarily the general public's limited understanding of its intricacies. It's an intricate landscape, reminiscent of the early days of traditional banking—with its share of opportunists and pitfalls. Governments worldwide are navigating this by drafting regulations, blending crypto into established financial systems, and even exploring Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). However, CBDCs, by nature, defy the decentralized essence of blockchains. Such centralized digital currencies in the hands of governmental authorities might pave the way for potential misuse and unparalleled control over citizens.

Impact: Distributed ledgers powered by blockchain technology are poised to significantly transform record-keeping. Be it land titles, academic achievements, or any public record, the stage is set for disruption. New entrants can establish baseline ledgers and challenge traditional stakeholders with innovative solutions.

Buzz/Wow Factor: Crypto's allure was only surpassed by AI, making it one of the most hyped technological innovations. The idea of decentralized ledgers challenging established power structures resonates with many, especially in an era of waning trust in traditional institutions. However, the rise of CBDCs presents a unique dilemma—leveraging decentralized technology for centralized control. Such a move could be seen as an authoritarian masterstroke, and in my opinion, one that should be approached with utmost caution.

3. Security - Multi Factor Authentication

Relevance: In today's digital age, where cyber threats are increasingly sophisticated, robust security measures like MFA and stringent application control are crucial. The relevance of these security measures is underscored by the growing need to protect sensitive data and systems from unauthorized access and cyber attacks.

Innovation: The innovation in MFA is focused on enhancing user convenience while maintaining security. Hardware devices that can be tapped or plugged in for a second authentication factor are emerging as popular solutions. The adoption of standards like FIDO (Fast Identity Online) is gaining traction, offering a more streamlined and secure authentication process compared to traditional methods.

Feasibility: Implementing MFA and application control is highly feasible with current technology. The challenge lies in user adaptation and ensuring that these security measures do not impede productivity. Organizations need to balance security needs with usability, and this requires thoughtful implementation and user education.

Impact: MFA has a significant impact on enhancing an organization's security posture. It plays a crucial role in preventing data breaches and unauthorized access, thus bolstering the resilience of IT infrastructures. The adoption of MFA also influences user behavior, as people become accustomed to having devices like phones as essential tools for secure access.

Buzz/Wow Factor: The buzz around these security measures is constant as organizations and individuals recognize the necessity of enhanced cybersecurity in a world of increasing digital threats. The move towards more sophisticated security protocols like FIDO and the adoption of hardware authentication devices is generating interest for their potential to revolutionize how we approach and manage digital security.

4. Security - Application Control

Relevance: Application control is becoming increasingly relevant as organizations strive to protect their digital environments from sophisticated cyber threats. This security measure involves regulating the software that can be run on systems, crucial for preventing the execution of unauthorized or harmful programs. Its importance is underscored in a landscape where internal threats and software vulnerabilities are common attack vectors.

Innovation: The innovation in application control lies in the development of advanced software management tools and policies. These tools allow network administrators to precisely control, monitor, and audit software usage within an organization. Innovations also include the integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning to dynamically assess and respond to threats, adapting to new security challenges as they arise.

Feasibility: Implementing robust application control is technically feasible with current technologies. The primary challenge lies in achieving the right balance between security and usability. Organizations must develop policies that are strict enough to ensure security but flexible enough to not hinder employee productivity and innovation. User education and clear communication about the reasons for these controls are essential for successful implementation. Advanced users, power users, software developers will really have a hard time adopting Application control. Keeping them motivated and productive is important but don't trade off too much security as this class of user with higher than normal access is often an attack vector. 

Impact: The impact of application control on organizational security is significant. By limiting software to approved and vetted applications, organizations can greatly reduce the risk of malware infections and data breaches. However, this can also affect the user experience, as employees may find their software choices limited. It necessitates a cultural shift in how software is perceived and used within corporate environments.

Buzz/Wow Factor: While application control might not generate the same level of excitement as other emerging technologies, it is a critical, albeit understated, aspect of cybersecurity. Its importance is gradually being recognized as a fundamental component of a comprehensive security strategy, especially in an era where the threat landscape is constantly evolving and becoming more sophisticated.

5. Photoreal Realtime Rendering

Relevance: The applications for Realtime Rendering are extending well beyond entertainment. Rendering technologies have proven value in the spaces of civic planning, archietechtural visualisation, engineering simulation and many more. As new technologies emerge making photo realistic images more and more possible the applications will multiply.

Innovation: The key advancments in this space will be the replacement of baked and rasterised based lighting modles with Path or Ray traced solutions. accuaratly simulating how light propogates through a scene is key to photo realism. Hardware manufacturers are fabricating chips now that are capable of this mathematical wizardry in real time. This is achieved at the momenet by rendering the image at a lower resolution and then upscaling to the users desired resolution. This in itself if akin to black magic. Subsequent generations of rendering hardware will likely vastly increase this capability 

Feasibility: The feasibility of achieving photoreal realtime rendering is high, with current trends and technological advancements indicating a clear path towards this reality. The development of specialized hardware, such as GPUs capable of handling the complex computations required for ray tracing and path tracing in real time, is a critical factor. This progress is supported by continuous software innovations that optimize rendering algorithms, making them more efficient and capable of running on a wider range of hardware. As technology continues to evolve, the barriers to implementing photoreal realtime rendering are rapidly diminishing, making it an increasingly practical option for a wide range of applications.

Impact: The impact of photoreal realtime rendering is far-reaching and transformative across multiple industries. In entertainment, it enhances the visual quality and immersion of video games and movies. In architecture and urban planning, it allows for more accurate and detailed visualizations of projects before they are built, aiding in design decisions and client presentations. Engineering simulations benefit from realistic rendering for better modeling of real-world scenarios, leading to improved product designs and testing. The educational sector can utilize this technology for more immersive and realistic training simulations. The impact extends to virtually any field where visual representation is crucial. Combine this with the sence of presence you get in virtual reality and the VR proposition becomes even more compelling.  

Buzz/Wow Factor: The 'wow' factor of photoreal realtime rendering lies in its ability to blur the lines between the digital and real worlds. This technology is captivating the imagination of creators and audiences alike, as it enables the creation of visuals that were previously only possible in high-budget productions or not at all. Its applications in virtual reality and augmented reality are particularly promising, offering a level of immersion and interaction that was previously unattainable. The buzz is fueled by the anticipation of future advancements, as each generation of rendering hardware and software brings us closer to a seamless integration of photorealistic visuals in our daily digital interactions.